Trade Group Signals Add to Industry Question Marks

While economy pundits like Blomberg are pointing to the RV industry sales dive as a bellweather for an economic recession (see "RV Manufacturers Hit the Skids") at least one industry gorilla doesn't share the view. The trade group, Recreational Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA), says 'au contraire.' RVIA mouthpiece, Gary LaBella, takes a very positive view of the future of RV marketing. Pointing to its own statistics, the group holds that RV ownership is growing faster than the population with nearly one in 12 U.S. vehicle owning households now owning an RV – an estimated 8 million vehicles. Statistics and studies conducted by the RVIA also suggest the growth rates in the RV marketplace are likely to continue in the long term – with the number of RV owning households rising to 8.5 percent by 2010.

Summing it up, LaBella says, “Demand for RVs will continue to grow during the next decade, due to favorable population trends and purchase intentions."

Train wreck or bullet train? Apparently the future will decide the fate of RV makers.

RV Manufacturers Hit the Skids in 2007

Bloomberg reported that overall RV sales are down for 2007. “None of the five largest recreational-vehicle makers has posted a 2007 stock gain. Riverside, California-based Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. declined 33 percent and Coachmen Industries Inc. of Elkhart, Indiana, fell 52 percent. Coburg, Oregon-based Monaco Coach Corp. dropped 35 percent, while Winnebago declined 37 percent. Thor, which hasn't had an annual loss since it was formed in 1986, slid 23 percent.” Read the article "Recession Signs Grow as Winnebago Leads U.S. RV Drop (Update2)" at Bloomberg.com.RV’s have been a traditional early indicator of a looming economic recession since they are largely based on discretionary spending. So far this year RV deliveries are down 11.1%. Still, industry analysts are optimistic, “Shipments will probably end the year down 10 percent, said Mack Bryan, vice president of administration at the RV industry trade group, which is holding this week's Louisville show.” I’ve been talking to RV salesmen and others in the RV industry and they confirm the slow-down in sales. So, if you’re looking for a good deal, this next year should see many RV dealers anxious to move their products and more willing to come down in price. Helping you make your best deal - Jim Twamley, Professor of RVing