Comments on Mark Polk's Predictions of RV Industry's Future

Chuck · Joined: 31 Oct 2005 Posts: 94

Please leave your thoughts here about Mark Polk's comments/predictions about the future of the RV industry. The story is located here:

http://tinyurl.com/byd8wj
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porscheracer · Posted: Fri Feb 06, 2009 10:03 am Post subject:

Pretty much spot on, IMHO.
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Norm & Janet
'08 Winnebago View 24H / '09 Escape XLT AWD toad
'05 Winnebago Vectra 36RD / '03 Dakota QC 4x4 toad, or a 24' trailer with another car;
Probably somewhere in NA - or maybe on another continent.

gcgcrv · Joined: 19 Jul 2008 Posts: 4 Location: Anywhere, USA

While it's hard to argue with most of the points made (shakeout, quality, service, "green"), don't you get the feeling that we've heard a lot of this before? What about the implications of the "new" RV world on people who provide services and those who consume them? There are a lot of people out there who are already into the RV lifestyle, so what's to become of them? A lot of focus is on the manufacturers and dealers, but they're only one segment.

I'd be interested in more opinions on what consumers are going to have to do differently. For example, there's a bias that's emerged that everything should go "euro." We hear that RVs should be, no make that must be, small. Does that mean that people who dream of full-timing better start redefining their future plans? Does that mean that people who already own an RV may start to experience a lack of services because they're "too big" (just when many campgrounds have learned to support larger-sized motorhomes and 5ers)?

It seems like all the focus on manufacturers and dealers could really be the tail wagging the dog when it comes to the broader RV lifestyle and associated markets for the next few years. If there are 8+ million RVs already out there (like we heard in the "RVing is great" articles before the bubble burst), then the new sales will be a pittance compared to issues surrounding how people actually use RVs for some time.

For context on my comments, we're on our second RV (bought new; now out of warranty and paid for), have no plans for another one for a long time (if ever), spend about 8-9 months straight "on the road" each year, and have a motorhome that's big enough for us and our two pets.

Bill 720 · Joined: 16 Jan 2006 Posts: 5

As was pointed out, we've heard this before. Mark's comments, however, ring true and are the most likely things to happen in the RV industry in the future.

Ron Butler · Joined: 14 Dec 2006 Posts: 15

Good article by Mark and comments by gcgcrv. I have to admit that I'm in a quandary about "size." We bought our first RV in '04 wanting to fulltime which we have been doing since '05. It's a 33' single-slide unit and we have been very happy with it. We have thought that we may "downsize" sometime in the future, but everytime I go aboard a smaller unit and peek through the tiny windshield, I think I couldn't travel like this. We would still do extensive traveling and they just don't have the ccc for that. Does that mean we shop for groceries every day?!

No matter what, when you're attempting to push a 30'+ "box" down the road, gas mileage is never going to be "good." For that to get better, you have to build smaller and lighter, and this old guy isn't ready to give up all of my creature comforts just to save 3-5 mpg or maybe a little more!

I figured that since I had a sailboat for 25 years and lived aboard for 5 years, the oil barons have finally caught up with me!

Oh, another thought. Since us "premature" baby boomers and "real" baby boomers seems to be the ones fueling the "big is better" thing, as we fade out of the picture, the succeeding generations seem to be smaller in numbers so that may have a built-in effect on the overall impact as well. Does that make sense?

Ron
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porscheracer · Posted: Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:42 pm Post subject:

The "one size fits all" philosophy doesn't work - either in gloves or RVs.

There are 2 groups of 3 styles each - and everyone fits into a combination of 2 or more.

Travel style: Full-Timer; Part-Timer; Vacationer;
Camping Style: Snowbird; Boondocker; Roamer.

Each mix has a different ideal. For instance, a full-timer/snowbird would want space and luxury, and not give much thought to drive train.

We are part-timers, and have a Vectra for our boondocking phase and a View for our Roamer phase. If I had to settle for only one - the new Damon Avanti would at least get a look.
_________________
Norm & Janet
'08 Winnebago View 24H / '09 Escape XLT AWD toad
'05 Winnebago Vectra 36RD / '03 Dakota QC 4x4 toad, or a 24' trailer with another car;
Probably somewhere in NA - or maybe on another continent.

gasbag · Joined: 13 Nov 2005 Posts: 285 Location: Washington State

I am just curious but is there a reason I am supposed to care what Mark thinks about anything?

Ten41seven · Joined: 18 Dec 2005 Posts: 29

I wish after reading your article that the manufacturers would read it and then act upon what you have stated. It would certainly improve relations within the RV world.
I would like to correct you about customer service and placing the blame on the dealerships. This is not entirely true.
In my case, it was a Mr. Schlingman with Winnebago, their top Customer Service Manager, who angered me to no end. He told me that Winnebago could fix my RV for me but he would not, at least not for free. It was not me that manufactured a door that was entirely too heavy for their RV and made it squeak extremely loud for three years of manufacturing.
It was, however, me who since his statement has, while traveling extensively through the US and Canada, taken it upon myself to let people know of his actions and in many cases have cost this corporation sales.
When the top Customer Service Manager of a large corporation is a total and complete idiot, he not only hurts his company but is now costing a lot of their long-time employees their jobs.
Shame on Mr. Schlingman and very much so SHAME ON WINNEBAGO.
Jim

TannerBee · Joined: 28 Oct 2006 Posts: 702 Location: Rock Hill, SC

I bought five GM cars between 1972 and 1980, three new, the last being a Cutlass Diesel. After the Olds zone manager told me what I could do with my GM diesel engine, I went to a junkyard and bought a gas engine and put it in myself. Put 70,000 more miles on the car before I left it to the ex-wife. Since then, by my recollection, I have bought one used and two new Nissans, three new Fords, one new Volvo, a used Mercedes, and my current 'hobby car', a 1982 Porsche 911SC. Oldsmobile? I think they went out of business...

You're right, Ten41seven, customer service rocks!
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Floyd and Tanner
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Time is either spent or invested.

tumbleturn · Joined: 19 Feb 2006 Posts: 283

I found his article ok at best. All he does is state the obvious things. He does not mention like the rest of the world right now, there is an overcapacity problem. Right now, the RV industry is capable of building more RVs than can be consumed. There are more dealers out there trying to sell RVs than can be supported by the public. What it boils down to when you have a boom like we did for about 6 years, manufacturing capacity gets overbuilt. Then when the overcapacity becomes apparent, then you have a recession. That's when the weak get weeded out. That's a bit simplistic but it is what happens. Remember not long ago when there was a fuel shortage and a commodity shortage for that matter? Today there are no shortages. Why? Because it was being used to build overcapacity. Now all of that capacity and inventory needs to be used up. And it will take years. I love it when people start using the word "green" when referring to energy. Take biodiesel. They have yet to prove that they have created more energy than consumed to make the product. If you were to convert all the energy consumption to make biodiesel come from biodiesel, what you would have left is maybe 10 percent of the biodiesel. And would cost a lot more than $5.00 a gallon; probably more like $20 or more. Without the government wasting your tax dollars subsidizing, it would not be the waste of energy it is. Of course that is assuming there is a net gain in energy. Even the History Channel included this in one sentence when reporting on the wonders of biodiesel in their 1-hour show. I am going to do everyone a favor who reads this. Click on this link and subscribe to John Mauldin's free newsletter "Thoughts from the Frontline." http://www.2000wave.com/gateway.asp Every Saturday morning when I get up, I read it first thing. It was tough at first to understand what he was saying, but I stuck with it and after a few months, I started to understand and now 7 years later, I have little problems at all understanding. He talks about what is going on with the economy, and why it is the way it is and what it is leading towards. With the help of reading his newsletter, I at almost age 50 last December started on my great fulltime RV adventure in the midst of a great depression. And I am just a lowly conservative blue collar worker.

Mike