RV wholesale shipments from manufacturers to dealers are projected to reach 498,800 units by year-end 2022 and 419,000 units in 2023, according to the Fall 2022 issue of RV RoadSigns, the quarterly forecast prepared by ITR Economics for the RV Industry Association (RVIA). The numbers signal a significant turnaround in record-setting years of recent times.
The new forecast projects 2022 RV shipments to range between 487,300 and 510,300 units with a most likely year-end total of 498,800 units, a 16.9% decline from the record 600,240 shipped in 2021.
As recently as March 1 the RoadSigns forecast predicted that shipments would reach 600,000, so the decline is significant and surprising.
Looking to 2023, the forecast projects a further decline, with shipments expected to range between 409,000 to 429,000 units with a most likely year-end total of 419,000, a 16% decline from the projected 2022 total.
The softening economic backdrop, as measured by declines in ITR’s system of leading indicators, is impacting the RV shipment forecast. Coupled with lower savings rates, elevated inflation, and higher interest rates, these factors are putting pressure on consumer budgets, leading some to reduce or postpone spending on discretionary items such as RVs. Record shipments in the first half of 2022 have allowed dealerships to replenish inventory and dealers are now managing their inventory and planning out for 2023.