“Oil tankers are rushing to leave Persian Gulf. Analysts predict a record rise in oil prices ($200-450 per barrel).” “If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, 30% of the world’s oil and gas supply gets choked. Global shipping stalls. Fuel prices explode. The economy crashes. This isn’t just another war. This is global economic murder.” Such are the comments on social media. Will you get stuck somewhere on an RV road trip when/if fuel prices skyrocket without warning? Here’s a Middle East fuel price reality check from an expert.
GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan gives Middle East fuel price reality check
Tensions in the Middle East—particularly between Israel and Iran—have the potential to nudge U.S. fuel prices upward, according to GasBuddy’s latest analysis. For RVers planning summer trips, this could mean moderate increases at the pump, especially for long hauls and diesel-powered rigs. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan says gasoline prices may climb 10 to 20 cents per gallon, while diesel could jump 15 to 30 cents, depending on how global markets react in the coming weeks.
But what about those dire social media predictions? De Haan had his own social media post, this one to X.com on Sunday: “Continued incorrect/false rumors talk about an incoming massive spike to [gas prices]. This is erroneous. Incorrect on the highest order. I am expecting the national average price of gasoline to rise an additional 10-30c/gal in the days ahead as of now.”
$3.40 to $3.50 per gallon—maybe even more, but “likely temporary”
In an appearance on Fox News, De Haan was plain-spoken: “If Iran mentions closing the Strait of Hormuz, you can see a quick spike in oil past the $80 barrel mark,” De Haan explained. “That could bring a national average of $3.40 to $3.50. If they’re mildly successful in carrying that out, oil could go even higher, but it would likely be temporary.”
What’s the Middle East fuel price reality check for RVers?
So do RVers have much to fear? So far, there haven’t been any physical disruptions in oil supply, but the risk of conflict near oil-shipping chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz has caused crude prices to rise. This “risk premium” is already being baked into oil futures, which means even if supply remains steady, fear alone can push prices higher.
For RVers, especially those in larger Class A or diesel pusher units, diesel costs may be the most sensitive. With U.S. diesel inventories already tight, any surge in global prices will be felt quickly on the road. But don’t expect $8.00 a gallon diesel.
If you’re traveling through the West or Midwest, expect some regional variation. GasBuddy isn’t forecasting a nationwide price shock, but if tensions flare up again or spread, fuel stations in rural or high-demand areas may see price spikes that outpace the national average. Don’t panic—plan ahead. Yes, you could pay more for fuel—but probably not enough to worry about having to hock your first-born.
If the current ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds and tensions de-escalate, crude prices could cool, and fuel costs may stabilize or even drop slightly by early July. But until there’s more certainty, it’s smart for RVers to keep an eye on fuel trends, plan routes strategically, and consider filling up earlier if heading into areas with historically higher fuel prices.
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RVT1215b
Oil is down over $9.00 per barrel since the start of the Israeli campaign on Iran 2 weeks ago. Oil is down over $4.00/barrel since the USA obliterated Iran’s nuke facilities 4 days ago.
Just a thought but instead of trying to focus on what “could have happened” or what “some predict may happen” or even what some “wish would happen”, perhaps it is better for us to focus on the FACTS of what actually happened or the FACTS of what is happening. Take the win instead of trying to pry an L into the equation, just enjoy another W.
Winning and winning and winning and winning.
Yep, WooHoo ! 👍👍
There are NO winners in any so called”war” or conflict…I know firsthand. The current fiasco in DC is war focused since the industrial war machine makes huge piles of money from them. The very thing Eisenhower warned us about.
Everyone gets a participation trophy? Pretty sure WINNING WW2 produced a loser and thus, many winners.
China told Iran do NOT close the Straits of Hormuz. They get 50% of their oil that way. The US 5%.
Exactly! The US asked China to pressure Iran to keep the shipping lane open, which obviously was in China’s interest anyhow, the world’s interests and in the interest of Iran itself given that oil exports are 90% of Iran’s revenue. Its not that Iran could have actually closed the strait for more than a day or 2 or 5 but a larger conflict could have erupted over any closure, given that Iran would have closed it with underwater mines and not a sign that said “CLOSED”.
It’s really strange that the price of gas jumped 20¢ overnight here before anything actually happened.
This has nothing to do with the threat of an embargo. It’s all about BIG OIL having an excuse to raise prices and fill their pockets with higher profits.
Nope, in my opinion I have to disagree…in California it’s all about the state gas taxes, which may rise again after the first of the month by up to .60 cents a gallon..go figure 🤔
I concur since Americans are addicted to cars and constant travel…. another example of capitalism.
Ate you saying capitalism is a bad system? If so, what system or example can you identify/point to, that has had better results for it’s population in any country in the history of the planet earth? Just one example will be fine JB. No need to find even 2 examples in the last 5,000,000 years.
Thank you, Russ and Tina, for the warning! I will call a buddy of mine (who refuses to retire) at Energy Information Administration and see what he thinks. He has done energy contingency work and planning since Carter was in office and has a few contacts. Have a great day and safe travels!