As the weather warms up (more) across the country, a lot of RVers are in the trip-planning phase. One of the big questions that takes center stage: How much will it cost to fill up the motorhome or the tow rig? We’ve probed the petroleum prognosticators to try and get a feel for what you might pay this summer. Depending on who you ask, fueling up may not be so bad.
Cost to fill up dropped two cents last week
Driver support group AAA pumped out their own gasoline projections earlier this week. First, they reflected on near-term history. “With domestic gasoline demand decidedly in the doldrums and the cost of oil retreating, the national average dipped two cents since last week to $3.65,” says a Tuesday summary.
And the reason? “Domestic gas demand is pretty pokey at the moment, which is often the case in the runup to Memorial Day and the traditional start of summer driving season,” said Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson. “The recent national average price of $3.67 could be the peak until hurricane season is well underway.”
That’s a dicey statement, since the U.S. Weather Service declares hurricane season from June 1 to November 30, peaking on September 10. It says most activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October. If we can stretch out that bit about hurricane season being “well underway,” then maybe, just maybe, we could assume that $3.67 would be tops until late summer.
Price of oil the bugaboo
At the same time, AAA warns, “But, as always, the wildcard will be the cost of oil, so stay tuned.” There’s the bugaboo in the business, the price of oil. What will oil prices do? If anyone could reliably predict that, they could probably make a big pocketful of money. Here’s what two big oil price guessers think.
On April 9, Uncle Sam’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) wrote that it “now expects Brent crude oil prices to average $88.55 a barrel this year, up from its earlier forecast of $87, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are now expected to average $83.78 a barrel in 2024.”
And one business oil-price-guesser, Bank of America’s energy analysts, followed a similar line. They raised their 2024 average crude oil price forecast earlier this month, predicting Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $86 a barrel and $81 a barrel this year, respectively. They projected prices will peak at around $95 a barrel this summer. Before their change of view a few weeks ago, they felt Brent would average $80 a barrel and WTI $75 a barrel in 2024. Interestingly, on Friday at around noon, West Texas Intermediate crude oil was pricing out at $83.78 a barrel.
How much does gas go up when oil goes up?
So, just how does the price of oil bear on the price of gasoline to fill up at the pump? A general rule of thumb says a $1-per-barrel change in the price of crude oil translates into a change of about 2.4 cents per gallon of gasoline.
So, let’s play “what if.” Today the average price of gasoline across the U.S. is $3.79. If that bank’s prediction were to come true in a worst-case scenario, and oil hit $95 a barrel, then you could expect to pay 27 cents more per gallon, or $4.06. That’s 7% more for your fuel. In 2023, gasoline peaked at $3.88 in mid-September. If you adjust for inflation, it would have cost you $3.98 in today’s dollars. But go back to 2022. Gas peaked at an incredible $5.01 a gallon, or $5.35 a gallon in today’s dollars.
Were you able to fuel your RV last year? It could be a bit tighter this year if the worst-case projections were to come true. But if the better scenarios hold, then the cost to fill up could actually end up being less than last year for the same trip.
And diesel prices?
What about diesel prices? We weren’t able to find a “cause and effect” relationship between diesel fuel pump prices and crude oil prices. Price projections for diesel, however, are better than for gasoline. The Energy Information Administration’s forecast earlier this year predicted diesel pump prices at $3.94 in the first quarter of the year. They show a drop to $3.92 in the second quarter, and even more come summer, down to $3.84.
How close will these estimates be? Well, the EIA did pretty well for the first quarter. Their projected average per-gallon price was $3.94. Looking back, the average price of diesel from January through March turned out to be $3.96—a half a percent more than predicted. We could hope those future stats prove out in a similar way.
And the rest of the projections?
For the optimists among us, here’s the rest of AAA’s most recent projections. Compared to 2023 average retail prices, this year’s prices show an expected 0.21¢ decrease per gallon of gasoline fuel (2023 average, $3.52) and a 0.30¢ decrease per gallon of diesel fuel (2023 average, $4.22). What’s pushing the projections? “According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gas demand fell from 8.66 to 8.42 million b/d last week,” says a AAA release. “Meanwhile, total domestic gasoline stocks decreased by .6 million bbl to 226.7 million bbl. Lower demand and a drop in oil prices could push pump prices lower.”
AAA Quick Stats
The nation’s top 10 least expensive markets: Mississippi ($3.09), Colorado ($3.13), Louisiana ($3.15), Oklahoma ($3.16), Arkansas ($3.21), New Mexico ($3.23), Kansas ($3.23), Alabama ($3.25), Texas ($3.25), and Tennessee ($3.27).
The nation’s top 10 most expensive markets: California ($5.40), Hawaii ($4.80), Washington ($4.65), Nevada ($4.59), Oregon ($4.43), Alaska ($4.37), Arizona ($4.09), Utah ($3.97), Idaho ($3.93), and Illinois ($3.91).
We’ll leave the fuel price fortune telling to others, but we can promise this. We’ll keep reporting what’s happening. Stay tuned.
##RVT1154b
In northern NJ- our gas prices have gone up .30 cents since the beginning of April, from 3.19 to 3.49, some stations are at 3.69 per gallon. And that is before the summer blend gas becomes mandatory and raises costs. I don’t keep as close an eye on diesel (hubby does), but that has also gone up. That means fewer camping trips cause more of our income will be needed for gas for our cars to go to work.
Your gas prices are lower than here in SW PA. One reason is that we have the second highest gas tax in the U.S. Our prices right now are $3.75-$3.79.
As far as the summer/ winter blend, that is nothing but a way for the big oil companies to raise prices. These companies say they have to shut down the refineries to make the change.
One other problem is that the credit card companies charge up to 3% for gas stations accepting credit cards. That relates to about 8 cents a gallon.
This charge is passed on to the consumer.
We have some local gas stations the discount the price 5 cents a gallon when using cash.
The Clean Air Act enacted by Congress in 1990 is what set up Summer/Winter blends. Since then States have piled on to have producers creating numerous specific blends for specific areas of the country and states. The refineries can’t just start producing these blends. They have to clear pipelines, production, and storage facilities, etc. first as they can’t mix the blends together. Lots and lots of logistics and regulations to manage. In addition, some of the refinery downtime is for other maintenance that is required.
I don’t see where the refineries suddenly make a big profit from all this, Bob, but you probably have the data, so please present. Thx.
We see the cash prices being a bit lower around here too. But, who heads off on a trip carrying thousands of dollars in cash so they can get the ‘better deal’ on fuel?
Thank you, Russ and Tina! 🙂 Unfortunately someone at EIA forgot the #1 rule in forecasting; if you get it right, quit. 😉 So, instead of packing it “in” after getting Q1 diesel prices essentially right, they continue forecasting. 🤔😯😉 As to current prices, we paid $3.406 for almost 78 and 1/2 gallons of diesel off I-75 in Greeneville, Tennessee Wednesday (24 Apr24). Thank you for following EIA’s forecast prices and others that are available! 🙂 Safe travels! 🙂
Well I can’t wait to get across the state line and outside of Ca. As our avg currently is $5.36 a gal!
$4.99 a gallon 2 days ago at the local Costco in east San Diego county. $5.09 at the local, around the corner, Speedway. ☹️
Regular unleaded in Shoshone, California is sitting at $6.34 a gallon right now.
I watched a guy rejoice at his GasBuddy and Chevron fuel card “savings” when he purchased $10.00 worth of gas to get to the next town.
$10.00 got him 1.6 gallons (Ouch!)
Interesting….. it’s an election year with an administration that is in deep trouble. I noted a news story a week or two ago – the Gov’t stopped refilling the fuel(s) into the national reserve – translation: Less demand – more supply. Wonder what it will be along about September-October… Hmmm? Most everything will be sunshine and roses between now and November!
It will all be “good” IF #45 gets back in the White House.
While I can appreciate the accuracy of these numbers which are all offered for relatively short snapshots in time for comparison, stating “cost of oil retreating” as why things are improving is not even a ‘cup half full’ position. Quite simply, oil is up 66% from May 1, 2019. Measuring this week to last week and this year to last year falls into cherry picking when it comes to oil prices.
Retreating? From what? 2% lower than last year means we’re still up 66% from 5 years ago. How should we all celebrate this good news, hopefully we don’t have drive to the party…..
the same folks are telling you that “crime is down substantially”, while simultaneously tiptoeing around the fact that it’s really arrests and prosecutions that are down. Meanwhile, crime actually soars. Apparently, feel good is more important to them than actually doing good. Unfortunately, millions bite. Hard.
Living in crazy times. On top of your FACTS, San Fran decriminalizes crime and then celebrates crime being down.
NYC reduces 62% of felony arrests to misdemeanors and then celebrates felonies being down….. with 1 exception of course where they are upgrading an old expired local misdemeanor to a federal felony which they refuse to identify the crime. Welcome to dystopia.
Nailed it.
For those of us who live in any west coast state, we are getting the shaft over fuel prices…and I do NOT live in California. This BS about gas prices is nothing more than market manipulation and has been going on for decades while the “manipulators” constantly lie about it. Catering to the rich as usual while stepping on the necks of us working class folks.
Thank you, Russ and Tina! 🙂 Rats, we (i.e., Tennessee) have only the 10th cheapest average gasoline price. 🙁 😉 We bought ~12 gallons of gasoline in north Georgia (Trenton) yesterday for $3.16/gallon, but regretted it soon when we saw that gasoline a few miles north (in Chattanooga, Tennessee) was $3.12/gallon and lower. Oh well. 😯 Thanks again, and safe, very safe travels, Russ and Tina! 🙂