The RV Industry Association says 2026 should be a growth year for RV shipments. Not a home run—more like a solid single—but still a step forward from 2025.
Problem is, if you look at how this year has actually started, the ball hasn’t really left the infield yet.
The industry is calling for a late-inning rally
RVIA’s forecast says shipments should land somewhere north of last year’s total, maybe around that 349,000 mark if things go right. That’s a nice, steady climb—not the wild pandemic years, just a team trying to get back into the game.
But here’s the catch: Most of that “growth” is supposed to show up later in the year. Think of it as a game plan that counts on scoring runs in the seventh, eighth, and ninth innings.
That can happen. It just hasn’t happened yet.
The early innings have been pretty quiet
So far, 2026 has looked more like a slow start at the plate.
January came in soft—down from last year. February picked up a bit. March crossed the 32,000 mark, which is respectable, but not exactly a breakout inning.
Put it all together and, yes, shipments are ticking up month to month. But compared to last year? Still playing from behind.
Why that matters if you’re shopping
Here’s where this shifts from industry talk to real life.
When sales aren’t exactly flying off the lot, dealers notice. They’ve got units coming in, floorplan costs stacking up, and a pretty good idea of how fast things are moving—or not moving.
That usually means one thing: They’re more willing to talk.
You’re not walking into a red-hot market where someone else is ready to grab the rig you’re looking at. There’s still inventory sitting, and that tends to keep the pressure off buyers.
The game could still change later
Now, if the industry’s forecast plays out, things could look different by late summer or fall.
Lower rates, more confident buyers, and suddenly that slow start turns into a decent season. Inventory tightens up. Discounts get thinner. Dealers stop chasing deals and start holding the line.
That’s the late-inning rally the forecast is counting on. But right now, we’re not there.
What RVers should take from this
If you’re in the market for an RV, this feels a lot like the middle innings of a game that hasn’t tilted one way or the other yet.
There’s inventory to choose from. There’s time to look around. And there’s still room to negotiate without feeling rushed.
Could that change later in the year? Sure. But as of now, the scoreboard isn’t flashing “seller’s market.”
The bottom line
The RV industry may very well end up having a decent 2026. The forecast isn’t crazy—it just depends on a stronger finish than we’ve seen so far.
For now, though, the early innings belong to buyers.
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