The jobs numbers out on Friday resulted in great giddiness in some quarters and foreboding in others. Giddiness because January’s 3.4% unemployment rate is the lowest the U.S. has seen since 1969, giving the lie to the nihilistic doomsayers who would have us believe we’re on the verge of economic collapse, the better to advance their agenda of more tax breaks for the rich. Foreboding because of the fear that low unemployment will push up wages, increasing inflationary pressures and possibly prompting more interest rate increases, finally pushing us into the recession that, yes, the nihilistic doomsayers keep predicting.
So which is it: Let the good times roll? Or hunker down for the coming storm?
For starters, it’s telling that the low unemployment numbers were coupled with news that the U.S. added 517,000 jobs in January, or almost three times most economists’ expectations. This increase was all the more startling because it was announced in the context of enormous—and enormously publicized—layoffs in the once high-flying tech sector, totaling more than 66,000 thus far in 2023. Yet that very contrast suggests why inflationary fears due to a strengthened labor market are overblown: The people getting laid-off are making multiples of what the new jobs are offering. As an economy, for the most part we’re trading high-paying jobs for low-paying ones.
Drill down to see a different picture
Indeed, drill down into the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) establishment survey for January and you’ll find that employment gains were strongest at the butt end of the wage scale, in leisure and hospitality, up by 128,000 jobs. In other words, for every high tech worker making a six figure salary who lost his job, two jobs paying significantly less than the median wage opened up. And guess what? The month’s average hourly earnings for all employees on private, nonfarm payrolls rose a grand 10 cents an hour, or 0.3%. That means average hourly earnings for the past 12 months posted a total increase of 4.4%, which not only is not inflationary but isn’t even keeping pace with the rising cost of living.
But there’s more. Despite that 128,000 pop in leisure and hospitality jobs, employment in this sector still remains significantly below the pre-pandemic level three years ago this month, by 495,000 jobs, or 2.9%. Moreover, if you break down the leisure and hospitality category into its component pieces, the food services and drinking end of things—primarily restaurants and bars—claimed the lion’s share of the job gains, while accommodations gained a mere 15,000 or so.
Where do campgrounds and RV parks fit in all this? There’s no definitive way to answer that, because the sector is such a small piece of the overall pie that BLS can’t spit out meaningful numbers. But with “accommodations” being inclusive of hotels, motels, resorts and other transient lodging significantly larger than the campground industry, it’s fair to assume that very few of those employment gains are trickling down to your favorite RV park.
Indeed, anecdotal evidence—which, alas, is all we have—is that the labor shortage afflicting the campground industry for the past three years continues unabated. High-end properties that can afford decent wages may be fully staffed, and mom-and-pop campgrounds that can be operated by just one or two couples are getting along. But the vast middle between those two extremes is hurting for employees, and RVers this year will feel the consequences: more automated check-in procedures and less human contact, dirtier bathrooms and cabins, more unkempt grounds and fewer activities.
Of course, it doesn’t help that many of these campgrounds, snatched up by absentee investors trying to maximize returns, continue paying wages that haven’t kept pace with the pay scales at fast-food restaurants and big-box stores. (That’s the other part of the equation that often gets omitted when people fret that higher wages will cause more inflation: The alternative is to reduce profits—but what am I saying?) Campground jobs, because they involve so much interaction with the outdoors, are among the dirtiest and most physically demanding in the accommodations sector, but RV parks are still offering $14 an hour for housekeepers or $15 an hour for maintenance workers. Good luck with that.
Bottom line, the new job numbers are (mostly) good news for the economy, but mostly irrelevant for the campground sector. So no rational need for hunkering down (“rational,” because it’s folly to underestimate the role of irrational actors), but if you’re heading out to a campground this summer, best be prudent and pack adequate cleaning supplies and tick spray.
Andy Zipser is the author of Renting Dirt, a first-person account of what it was like to own and operate an RV park for eight years and Turning Dirt, a step-by-step guide for those who want to find, buy and operate an RV park of their own. The essay above first appeared on his blog, Renting Dirt.
##RVT1090b
The long term facts are opposite the sales pitch. Historically, 60 years +/-, the Rich get Richer under dems and the middle class grows under republicans. Exactly the opposite of what they are telling you. Only dumb people think tax cuts are for the rich. It’s the rich that pass on the taxes to you. Lower taxes at the top, so you keep more money at the bottom. Why do you think Gates, Buffet and Bezos are prolific dems? Altruism?
Last summer, pre-election we had back to back job gains if 250,000k jobs that were adjusted down to 1,000 jobs combined total for both months, post -election. How’s that for slight of hand and election rigging? Only 499,000 jobs off of the 500,000 reported. NOT A ROUNDING ERROR.
Sorry, my point to Andy Zipser in the 2nd paragraph is, please get back to us after tonights State of The Union address and this latest piece of propaganda has been revised, likely down, as it no longer needs padding.
I don’t read your article as being left or right however, I’m just skeptical of any job numbers pre-revision right now.
I really have enjoyed this site. Until this article. Politics is infecting every corner of society and Andy’s political party preference come blaring through in the first paragraph. Can we please keep this site to just about camping and not about one’s personal political biases?
Totally agree 100 % but good luck with that!
The answer is for more campgrounds to offer full hookups and amenities to workampers, along with $15.00/hr. No charge for this. And then more of the (poor folks) taking these jobs. There are also many volunteer jobs that offer free sites for 15 to 20 hours per week. This will help you get a campsite for free and many times in a great area.
The point of this article escaped me. Illegals are now $25/hour and that’s the cheapest labor available in the market. “I think” that I currently employ a total of 7. If I could find a legal employee with an alarm clock and no fear of getting callous on non-manicured hands, I would hire them. Better to have them on my payroll PAYING TAXES than have them on yours at the 4 star Watson Hotel on your dime. Some would disagree with me but I didn’t open the border and they are here. We will pay to feed and house them, one way or another. BUILD THE WALL
Back in the day when I was starting to work full-time (I worked part-time jobs while in high school), these minimum-wage jobs were seen as entry-level jobs. I was a bellman at a hotel, and worked up to Assistant to the General Manager, before I moved-on to a better job. I kept improving my skills, so I could get better-paying jobs.
Although I did not do a 4-year degree, I kept working and learning skills (and getting raises). Eventually, I did go to night school and got a Bachelor’s Degree, and more raises.
My point is, if you are industrious, you don’t work minimum-wage jobs very long. I have no sympathy for people who complain they can’t make a “living wage” doing dishes. You are not supposed to! Improve your skillset constantly, and you will move up the income ladder. Stagnate, and it’s your own fault. It takes effort to better your position in life.
Well said. “Through hard work, I will get ahead.”
Equity is for losers. Work harder, do better. Simple.
Why do we have to always blame something or someone? Inquiring old man would love to know.
I take these employment gains with a grain of salt. My opinion is there weren’t 517,000 NEW jobs added. I think these are just the old jobs lost during COVID being resurrected. I decided to retire and stop working during Covid, so a new job wasn’t created, someone just stepped into my old job.
So many of those IT people who were busy censoring America for years are now waiting tables and cutting grass?…….SWEET!
Nothing lasts long now days.
Speaking of workampers… The new corporate owners of our seasonal campground just offered a janitorial job in return for a site and electric. The consensus is the job description would typically require 30 hours of semi-moderate labor a week, stretched over a 7-day work week. This offer was extended primarily to retirees. The honest answer was we would be further ahead – much further ahead – financially, to work 15 hours a week with less physical stress for any number of local businesses. And while maybe watching their expenses, retiree-owners of shiny class-A or slumming it with 30+ foot 3-4 slide trailers typically aren’t so dim and desperate to work well below minimum wage, let alone 30 hour a week on a 7-day a week schedule.
Frankly, this is one reason why many campgrounds can’t get workers.
Good point! That’s usually the case in many “rent for labor” situations. You’re far better off to get a job at Home Depot for 10 hours per week than to be a slave for the campground for 30 hours plus and 7 days per week.
Sounds like you’re not a fan of the campground’s new corporate owners!
Hey Andy, good reporting. A real world view of what the numbers mean. I am a small service company and have no employees. Why? My days of “babysitting” people who I would pay a decent salary $ 30.00 an hour plus benefits “are over, ain’t going to happen, forget it”.
We need better immigration as that has been one of the biggest issues with lack of workers. Especially lower income ones.
This is it exactly! When my sister was sick, I took a Certified Nursing Assistance (CNA) course so I would know how to help her. The majority of the class was from the Philippines. Both men and women. They were looking to work in nursing homes. Taking care of a close relative or doing it for a living are vastly different. Most Americans won’t do it.
This is not a new trend. I live in California and Filipinos are commonly found in numerous medical offices, hospitals, pharmacies here in almost all levels…except the top ones. It has been that way for decades. English is the 2nd language in the PI, so it is any easy transition to here. But the accent takes time to fade. They are a hard working, industrious family oriented mostly Christian group that are well respected community members. The pleasure cruise industry would not exist without them.
With all the illegal immigrants coming thru our border. You would think all these low wage jobs would be filled.
Maybe there really aren’t enough of them.
As I read the article, I couldn’t help but hear underlying tones of a good forecast for workkampers such as my wife and I. Good news for us!
Love it! Great attitude!!!
What’s the main point of his article? That there aren’t enough campground workers? If so, what’s his suggestion, 6 figure salaries for someone to clean bathrooms and mow the lawns?
In my younger days these campground jobs would have been grabbed up by high school kids.
There’s no doubt that you can’t compare any Workforce information from 1969 to current numbers. Administrations in the intervening years have been manipulating how these numbers are generated in order to suit their propaganda.
What? Are you implying that our government’s credibility is questionable?
George Santo’s credibility is nothing compared to our government and career politicians.
Less than honest politicians?
Politicians lie? Both parties?
don’t forget those able bodied workers who have just stopped working by choice and are on some sort of support, those are the uncounted unemployed whom seem to be growing in numbers
Yes, politically driven manipulation of the numbers. If inflation were calculated using the same formula as 1969, the real inflation number would be over 17%.