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Industry analysts warn of propane “Armageddon” this winter. Be prepared.

RVers who are still using their rigs this winter would be wise to keep a close eye on their propane levels.

Propane industry analysts are already warning of an “Armageddon” in the U.S. propane market due to low supply, high demand, and the resulting rocketing prices.

Edgar Ang, who is with the research firm IHS Markit Ltd., said U.S. propane inventories are at record lows and will remain extremely tight as the cold weather sets in. Experts are also warning that mean temperatures in the Lower 48 states are expected to drop into the 60-55 degree range by the end of October, and heating degree days (those days that signal the start of the heating season) have already begun in much of the country.

Ang said the sudden rise in propane prices “may indicate players are preparing for a propane market Armageddon.” He said some areas might be prone to see propane shortages throughout the winter.

Propane prices have jumped to their highest levels in a decade due to increases in overseas demand as well as tight production. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) also is reporting that households that use propane (including RVers) will be spending much more than last year.

Ang also said all indications are that it’s going to be a cooler winter in 2021/2022, adding to the pressure on prices and the supply market.

U.S. propane prices have almost doubled this year. While only 5% of U.S. households heat with propane, it is of course the fuel of choice for powering the utilities in recreational vehicles. The EIA said propane users can expect to spend at least 54% more this winter to keep warm.

The average per-gallon price for propane in the U.S. hit $2.691 a gallon on October 18th.

##RVT1023b

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Bernie Turner
4 days ago

Bought propane today for $2.00 a gallon in Rolla ND.

Carson Axtell
17 days ago

Despite all the paranoia and conspiracy theories, fossil fuel prices are still set by supply and demand in international markets, although in this case supply chains are constrained by breakdowns and backlogs in shipping and manufacturing. What’s left of the free market after the effect of the Covid lockdowns is what is driving prices for consumers into the stratosphere. Just think back to fuel prices and gas lines of the 70s when OPEC squeezed oil deliveries after Nixon took the dollar off the gold peg in 1971 and tied it to oil in order to continue funding the cold war military industrial complex: US debt at that time had expanded far beyond the fixed value of $35/ounce gold held by the treasury, and the rest of the world wanted off the dollar’s reserve status, but for some reason they bought back in once Nixon guaranteed OPEC’s defense on the condition that they accept only US dollars for oil…

Last edited 17 days ago by Carson Axtell
Wendy S
17 days ago

is there a anti-theft locking device for dual propane tanks (travel trailer)?

CLeeNick
1 month ago

Across the board: Prices rising. Shortages looming. This entire year, from February onward, has been one disaster after another.

Thanks, Joe!

Vincee
1 month ago

Back in February of this year, we camped at a campground in Hastings, Fl. This CG is relativity new and the owners go above and beyond trying to meet your needs. Speaking to the husband of the team he told me his wholesale price of propane exactly doubled the day after the current resident of the White House was sworn in. Apparently, as told by the CG owner who was relaying the information from his propane supplier a guy named Hunter Biden owns the largest propane supply company in the U.S.

Just a thought why gas, diesel, natural gas, electric, and propane are at or near record highs.

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Vincee

I think the propane supplier was misinformed, Vincee. –Diane

traceywesterkamm
1 month ago

I don’t know about everywhere else but propane was 5.99$ a gallon last winter in Indiana.

Tom
1 month ago

Propane is a scam. It has appx 90,000 btu/gallon.
A watt is equal to 750 btu, so a 1500 watt electric space heater produces as many btus as 12.5 gallons of propane.
If the cost for a kwhr of electricity is 12.5 cents it costs less than 20¢ an hour to run an electric heater.
I had a 30000 btu/hr propane heater in my 5th wheel.
The cost / hr to run it would be probably $1.25/hr.
The electric heater worked fine, but slower at a cost of about 15¢/hr.
No running out of propane at 2am or searching for it.
$30 plus to fill a grill sized tank is ridiculous.
Especially considering propane is just natural gas with added butane and odor chemicals

Jim Namalias
1 month ago
Reply to  Tom

Check your numbers, Tom. The btu is an energy unit (not power), and the watt is a power unit (not energy). According to http://www.eia.gov, one kilowatt-hour (kwh) = 3,412 btu. And one gallon of propane (gpp) yields 91,452 btu. Simply ratioing the numbers, one kwh = 0.03732 gpp. Using your quantities, that’s 0.00003732 gallon of propane yields one watt-hour of electrical energy. Or expressed inversely, one gallon of propane yields 26,800 watt-hours which is 26.80 kilowatt-hours of energy. So, a 1500-watt space heater running for one hour consumes 1.5 kwh of electrical energy. 1.5 kwh is equivalent to 0.0559 gpp (not 12.5 gpp as you claim). Of course, these conversions are approximate because there are losses incurred when one form of energy is converted to another form of energy (like chemical to heat or electrical to heat).

butch
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim Namalias

if you could find a diesel genny you would do better, Especially if it was 4 pole, it would run at 1800 rpm. And only use the fuel it needs to make the HP needed to make the power you require. Gas/Propane { small homeowner type} usually run at 3600 rpm [2 pole] noisy; waste fuel; don’t have a for ever lifetime. Stay away from generake (I hate them, parts on older units get hard to find) I found a used Onan Cummins 30KW unit / 6 cyl cummins diesel for 3000.00 and only 483 hrs on it. had the 10 wire gen head, so I was able to rewire it from 480 3ph to 240 single ph. for here @ home. I spent almost as much for the autotransfer gear as I did the genny. But where I’m at it’s nice to have auto power in 7 seconds. fuel use is .87 gph ful load, I never come close to 30KW here.

TRUTH
1 month ago

Faith over fear in my book! O&G fluctuates as with other things…we just got spoiled over what it was and still could be if we had a real President that was adept and understood business and not spite & hate. We had a good economy 2018 – 2021Jan.; year ago we weren’t having these prices $8/lb for a pot roast, $6/lb for groundbeef, or $3/gal for regular gas, etc etc… it may not be “Armageddon” but the way this country is going under this administration is nothing but a chtpot. It has and is unfortunately political when you shut down a pipeline, screw over relationships with other countries and our military, police, force-able mandates, the list goes on. I look forward to the day when I can enjoy RV’ing again and diesel and propane are not so expensive.

Robert Copeland
1 month ago
Reply to  TRUTH

Same here.

Eric
1 month ago
Reply to  TRUTH

Keep the political comments away from the RV pages, OK?
We get enough political BS elsewhere.

Tom
1 month ago
Reply to  TRUTH

Go back and get more talking points from your leader in Fl

Tracy Mapes
1 month ago

People being forced to live in RV’s and Trailers. I watched the volume increase since Covid from $2.79 to $3.99 per gallon, with occasional waiting between resupply.

Economy, and Rent Prices, are driving people to the streets and driveways of America.

Engineered Shakedown of America by foreign nations and global sustainability Agenda.

Liz
1 month ago

I swear this is Big Business and the Powers That Be systematic plot to bring all Americans (except the ultra rich) to their knees financially. It is just uncanny that food prices are soaring, gas prices are ratcheting up despite less demand, there is oddly a shortage of drivers to deliver goods and now heating fuel like propane is suddenly doubling in price???? Too many hairs on the back of my neck say sinister forces are at play here.

Jennifer L Ayres
1 month ago
Reply to  Liz

You are right. The ***** communists are at war with the world. This is what we get for being nice to them, a stab in the back. They creeped in everywhere like roaches and seized power. Now they operate like the mafia.

Hillbilly
1 month ago

They only have power because we the ppl gave them the power and just like that though we the people are the only ones that can take there power we the people need to come together as Americans and take are country back

Rick E
1 month ago

Another Biden Bungle! Just Shaking my Head.

Karen McCormick
1 month ago
Reply to  Rick E

It’s more the result of the ***** Virus causing shortages throughout the supply chain, if you go for that sort of fingerprinting. In reality, presidents don’t have control of fuel prices, not since Reagan deregulated the industry back in the late 70’s. I remember it well. Gas went from 35 cents a gal to over a dollar and hasn’t stopped.

Last edited 1 month ago by RV Staff
Mike Feddersen
1 month ago

President Reagan wasn’t in the White House until the 80’s, you remember it differently than a rational human being. I was a fairly new driver in 1979, I had drove around a month or two when gas doubled. Where the heck do you live that gas was $0.35? If you want cheap gas, move to Venezuela.
P.S. Reagan has plenty of his own Charlie Foxtrots.

Eric
1 month ago

Exactly right, it’s almost all due to covid messing up the supply chain. Too many people ignore the facts and just use the difficulties to complain about politics.

Jo Haher
1 month ago

It’s not the C-V but political RESPONSE to it that is causing all the problems. If it was really about health, we “they” would be encouraging every to eat healthy, exercise and take vitamin D.

Tom
1 month ago
Reply to  Rick E

👎

California Travel Videos
1 month ago

Yikes, 60 comments in the first day – looking at Edgar Ang’s Linked In page, I see his credentials are in Journalism and Mass Communications! He certainly knows how to write headlines to generate a buzz and engagement with salacious titles and it’s definitely working here at RVTravel – well played, I guess…but we’re kinda’ sorry on Saturday’s livestream we promoted this story when we saw your teaser headline before reading the fact – good lesson learned.

Last edited 1 month ago by California Travel Videos
chris skoog
1 month ago

Edgar knows his sh*t. I will vouch for him. We have discussed the market and his sense of things is not wrong. it is fundamental-derived.

Propane prices will come back down to earth when the supply rebounds (o&g drilling for new production). The demand side of the equation is more robust right now- everywhere- especially abroad. of the ~2M bbls/day of us production, more than half of this has been going to export for the last year or two- meanwhile the production side of things has been slow to rebound post covid and negative crude pricing in april of ’20.

But as anything in any free market, the cure for high prices, is high prices… the market will come back down when enough buyers switch out of propane and or enough producers with access to capital point that capital into drilling and increasing production. Supply and Demand. econ 101. doesn’t matter if you’re a phd in econ or a journalist in mass comm. the principles don’t change.

Cally
1 month ago
Reply to  chris skoog

Propane is one of the derivitives of crude oil refinement. You dont have to drill for it specifically. As demand grows, they can increase production with changes to the refinement process. The problem now is distribution. It is probably not a sign of the four horsemen.

Glenn Carr
1 month ago

Ya wanna play, ya gotta pay

Charlie
1 month ago

Using the word “Armageddon” is really inflammatory and unnecessary. Yes, I’m sure it is a great headline to get people to click on it, but really. Shortages and higher prices (which usually alleviates shortages), is very different from Armageddon. The inflammatory language just spins people up, and can actually create the shortages as people rush to overbuy.

Lori D.
1 month ago
Reply to  Charlie

Thank you, Charlie. I agree 100% with you.

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Charlie

Hi, Charlie. So, when we’re reporting on what propane industry analysts are predicting, and we’re quoting them (in quotation marks, so it’s clear that it’s not our term), that’s not allowed? If you don’t like the term, may I suggest you write to Edgar Ang, at the firm IHS Markit Ltd., and take it up with him. As one of our readers commented, don’t shoot the messenger – please. Thank you. Have a good night. 🙂 –Diane

Suru
1 month ago
Reply to  RV Staff

Well. . . . YOU used the term in YOUR headline, quotes or no quotes. YOU chose to use that word. Just be honest and admit that the word “Armageddon” is catchy and clickbait and that’s why you put it in YOUR headline. I agree with Charlie.

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Suru

Dang! Now you’re shooting the messenger of the messenger, Suru. Hey, I just work here. 🙄 But, yes. I see your point. I’ll leave the explanation of why that was included to the journalists. Actually, no, they don’t need to explain it, especially since it did get your attention. 😉 Have a good night. -Diane

Lindalee
1 month ago
Reply to  RV Staff

HA HA HA! You got them that time Diane!!!

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Lindalee

Thanks, Lindalee. Unfortunately, I’m sure that’s not the end of it. But, at 75, I have a pretty tough skin and have been through lots worse than dealing with negative comments. Take care. 🙂 –Diane

Lindalee
1 month ago
Reply to  RV Staff

Well, Diane, some people will condemn you regardless, I guess!

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Lindalee

That’s true. Can’t make everyone happy. But, like I said, I just work here (and very happily so, I might add). Have a good night. 🙂 –Diane

Rick E
1 month ago
Reply to  RV Staff

You are completely correct Staff. I saw the quotation remarks in the heading. When the industry is calling it “Armageddon” I’d be listening very closely. I hope Charlie doesn’t eat his words when average folks who burn propane for their homes are going to suffer unnecessarily. Ang’s reporting is accurate and informative.

Admin
RV Staff(@rvstaff)
1 month ago
Reply to  Rick E

Thank you, Rick. I appreciate your words of support. I should have had my flak jacket on, for all of those who chose to “shoot the messenger” (or, in this case, the messenger’s messenger). 😆 Have a great day. 🙂 –Diane

R.C.
1 month ago
Reply to  Charlie

Agreed, Charlie. I, too, believe this was an over dramatic statement. Unfortunately, it’s like the same routine that has gone on for decades: convince everybody there is a shortage and raise the prices substantially. However, when the “shortage” has ended, but they will not put the prices back to a reasonable rate. They will keep them extremely high and reap the rewards. Just look at history. Gasoline, electricity, food, clothing, water, etc. We won’t even get into medication’s in America. But, history does repeat itself. Further strangling the middle class. Again, it’s just history.

W. G. ADAMS
1 month ago
Reply to  R.C.

Absolutely agree.

Karen McCormick
1 month ago
Reply to  Charlie

👍

Larry
1 month ago
Reply to  Charlie

That’s it in a propane tank, I mean nutshell. Theres NEVER a shortage. Announcements make it a shortage. Commodity/ fuel prices price gouging. It will NEVER end. Corruption reigns!!

okispider
1 month ago
Reply to  Larry

true

JohnnyGageRampartSquad51
1 month ago

So the article purports that all indications point to a colder than normal winter, yet they don’t name their source. The National Weather Service JUST put out days ago, that the opposite is expected. Ie – warmer than normal temps for most of the U.S.

I filled up my home propane at the end of Sept for $2.09/gal. I filled up my RV propane tank last week for $2.49/gal.

Frank B
1 month ago

😁😁

Brenda Odom
1 month ago

We are fortunate. After having several RVs, hubby ensured when we purchased our current Class C that our fridge, heat and water heater can run on either electric or propane. I never use the gas stove…rely on my elec frying pan, Instant Pot and microwave. Since we do not boondock, and have a generator for emergencies, we feel pretty secure that we can weather the storm.

Carl Hanson
1 month ago
Clint Anderson
1 month ago

And the worse is yet to come.. The few people that still want to work won’t be able to…wont be able to afford gas

Richard. Hughes
1 month ago

Actually, “Democrats” have nothing to do with it.

Michael Ammirati
1 month ago

You mean like shutting down pipelines here and approving russian pipelines, stopping the drilling in ANWR, making us dependent once again, on foreign countries who don’t hesitate to take advantage of weakness. But, you are somewhat correct, the weak Republicans (assistant Democrats), are as much to blame.

Drew
1 month ago

It’s the end of the world.