While California’s ACT air quality regulation isn’t truly a ban, it could effectively shut down sales of new motorhomes there. Other states will likely follow. Interestingly, wholesale prices of used motorhomes dropped like a stone in the latest RV auction report from Black Book. We asked, “Could California’s regulation turn that around?” Hang on—we’ll tell you what we heard.
Motorhomes “dropping quite a bit” in RV auction report
In the monthly Black Book report of RV auction values, principal analyst Eric Lawrence spelled out the news from October 2024 sales. “The average values for Motorhomes and Towables sold at auction were mixed last month, with Towables increasing slightly and Motorhomes dropping quite a bit.”
“Dropping quite a bit” seems a bit of an understatement. Lawrence admits so. He added, “The prices were still some of the lowest we have seen for the past several years.” You’d have to go clear back to July 2020 to see motorhome prices significantly lower. That, when compared to the average selling price of $54,243, down $11,730 (17.8%) from September 2024. The average selling age of motorhomes clocked in at eight years old.
What’s behind it? “Much of that decline can be attributed to the mix of units running through the lanes (there were significantly fewer high end Class A models),” Lawrence explained. Lawrence’s gut instinct suggests that motorhome prices may rebound significantly in next month’s report—but we’ll see.
Towables up a bit—but not likely a significant number
On the towable side of the aisle, these non-motorized rigs came in at $19,062, up $326 (1.7%) from last month. Is that rise significant? Lawrence doesn’t think so. On a phone call, Lawrence said that the price increase could easily be attributed to the age of the trailers at auction in October, a year newer, a 4-year old, with an average manufacturing date of 2020, as opposed to 2019’s last month.
For perspective in our RV auction report, one year ago the average motorhome sold for $63,812 and the average towable brought $18,941. Auction volume was down: motorhomes declined 4.3% while towables dropped 1.5%.
How might California’s ACT regulation stir the motorhome price pot?
Aside from details about the RV auction report, we asked Lawrence about his thinking as to how the California regulation that could effectively shut off the sale of new RVs there (and in other subscribing states) might act on motorhome sale prices. Lawrence will be quick to tell you he doesn’t have any “insider” information on the negotiations between the RV industry and California regulators. But his personal feelings say that the issue is just too big to stay static. He feels that somehow, an exemption or other move will open a way for new motorhomes to continue to be sold in the states that presently swirl in controversy.
“But what if that doesn’t happen?” we asked. Lawrence points back to what happened to the auto market back in the dark days of COVID-19. When labor and supply-chain issues tightened up the flow of new cars to the market, “used cars went up $10,000 to $20,000,” he replied. If there’s a shutdown of new motorhome sales in California and other states, he anticipates that used motorhome prices could be affected, showing an upward rise. But how far away from the affected states the price jumps might go is anyone’s guess.
Hang onto your hats. We live in interesting times. Tune in again in a few weeks as we look at the next RV auction report.
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What makes my 2006 Tiffin DP valuable is “NO DEF” and a well built coach compared to anything 2019 on to todays crap that has been well maintained and upgraded.
Polution at its finest.
“Polution at its finest.” Not really. The DPF and EGR additions actually reduce efficiency, and mileage numbers suffer. While there are fewer particulates, the gaseous emissions *not* captured by the DPF are increased since more hydrocarbons are oxidized for the same distance traveled.
The use of a vehicle not hindered by the need for DEF does not equal to more “Polution” [sic], nor does it create more pollution.
Those average auction prices mean nothing. “Prices” didn’t plunge…the mix was different. As reported in this column numerous times before, just a few late model high end coaches in the mix can drastically pull up the average. If the mix doesn’t contain those kinds of units the next month, it drops like a stone. But that doesn’t mean that similar individual units changed price month to month.
The headline and chart title is simply wrong. It just shows the avg of what sold that month. Has nothing to do with like values MTM.
I think a lot of diesel MH buyers will be looking into domiciling in Montana. It may require opening a sole proprietor shell company to own the motorhome. But, it may be worth it to keep that Tiffin on the road.
DEF is a joke, the same as those “smog” pumps robbing horsepower and mileage; costing us more of our hard earned $$$$
Thank you, Russ and Tina! Yes, if there is no loosening of the restriction, then reasonable to think used values/prices will increase. However, probably only low (7,501-10,000) mileage diesel pushers. Will increase the avetage for all class A used sales and motorized sales in general. But underlying the price changes will be, as Mikal notes below, a change in the mixture of RV classes sold. Happy new year and safe tdavels! 🙂