The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) just issued the nationwide winter outlook for December 2025 through February 2026.
NOAA is a U.S. government science agency that combines observations, long-running climate records, and statewide/national forecast models to produce seasonal outlooks and hazard briefings. In short, they’re the people who watch the big climate signals so you don’t have to.
NOAA’s outlook matters
NOAA’s seasonal outlooks don’t replace local forecasts, but they do help you make smart decisions weeks to months ahead. If NOAA is tilting toward wetter conditions in the northern tier of the country, for example, expect more storm systems, mud, possible campground closures, or messy backroads. If the outlook favors a drier southern tier, wildfire and drought risk can rise.
Big picture for winter 2025–26
There is a weak La Niña in the tropical Pacific, which the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) says is likely to continue through at least the early winter months. Expect a La Niña winter pattern, but with variability and regional exceptions.
Note: La Niña occurs when ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are cooler than normal. This shifts global weather patterns.
Regional outlook
Pacific Northwest and Northern California
NOAA favors above-average precipitation and a decent chance of cooler signals in parts of the northern tier. That raises the chance of wet winters, mountain snow at higher elevations, and a robust river/stream flow for early spring. RVers planning coastal or mountain trips should watch atmospheric river threats (heavy rain and flooding) and check local NWS flood/hazards pages before travel.
Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Western Great Lakes
These regions show an increased likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions, and some model guidance leans toward cooler episodes. This can mean more snow potential in places that usually see it. If you boondock on forest roads or rely on secondary roads, factor in snowpack timing and winter road closures.
Central and Eastern U.S. (Ohio Valley, Midwest, Northeast)
NOAA’s maps point to a mixed picture. There are pockets of equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperature, but there’s an overall nudge toward wetter signals in some northern parts. That translates to the possibility of notable storms and snow events, especially in the Upper Midwest and parts of the Great Lakes. RVers should plan flexible itineraries and have chains or a traction solution if you’ll cross affected mountain passes.
Southwest, Southern Plains, and much of the Southeast
NOAA favors above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier. For RVers chasing warm winter weather, which looks good, but it also increases wildfire potential and drought stress in some states. (Texas and parts of the Southern Plains are already showing dryness concerns.) Keep an eye on local fire restrictions and water availability at parks and private RV resorts.
How RVers can use the outlook
Use the regional signals to choose routes, not to lock into a single plan. If the Northwest looks wet, route to lower-elevation campgrounds with good access roads, and keep a backup plan that avoids exposed mountain passes.
If the southern tier looks warm and dry, check fire restrictions and check potable water availability at private parks before boondocking.
Subscribe to local NWS office briefings for long-lead hazard updates (snow, floods, wind) and sign up for NOAA Weather Radio or local alert systems while you travel.
Above all, consider actionable steps: flexible reservations, extra days for weather delays, winter tire options, spare fuel and water, and a charged portable heater or sleeping system rated for expected lows.
Video
Read more recent news here.
RVT1232b
Helpful article, thank you!